[Spicymoose]

I hate these situations, and I think I normally just check fold on the river also. I'll try to give some reasons for firing again though...

You need to win 1 in 7 times.

He probably doesn't have a J, as I think he would probably raise the flop or turn.

Similarly, he might raise an 8 or 9 somewhere, so these have to be discounted as possibilities.

I would think that in this case he usually either has a PP, 44-77, or some sort of T, with the picked up straight draw on the turn. Maybe AT, KT. Although you are beating KT, if you check you have to fold, and he might bet it to try to fold out your A. There are 24 PP he could have, but 16 AT, and 12 KT. AT definetly has to be discounted, as he might cap preflop, and might play the flop differently, but even discounted I think there are at least 10 combos. Note, there are also other possibilities of hands he could have, but considering you only have to fold out a better hand a small amount of time, you really need to come up with about 60 other possibilities of holdings (even more for the times he has KT and would bet if checked to), and I think that would be hard to do.