Re: Meh
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You're at the point that you're afraid your opponent will "put you on a hand" when you raise. What do you think your opponent puts you on when he's holding 99 and you call the flop?
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I think a 2/4 player is less likely to give thought as towards what you hold when you don't raise him. (seems like a bit of sketchy repsonse, but I think it's fairly true).
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How much are we losing when he has A5s? What about when he has JJ and is willing to call down (happens a LOT more often than you think).
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If he has JJ and just calls down, we miss 1sb. I don't think JJ is folding that often, but we're potentially getting rid of slightly weaker hands like 99 or other smaller pairs. He doesn't need to fold here a very high % of the time for that 1sb extra value to not exist.
Against A9 or A5s or whatever we may miss a few bets, but he could also have AJ/AQ equally often and we're just paying off those extra bets. So I don't really see the value against these hands existing, in terms of putting in more than 1 raise anyways.
Also, you mentioned people have a tendency to not trust a flop raise. I think by the same token, people also have a tendency to call one last bet on the river.
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I don't think it's quite fair to say "this is 2/4" and leave it at that. That's a disservice to those who are playing at these limits. They're not all mindless automatons. I'm not giving him much credit for being a great player, but I'm trying to balance
While I think people tend to call river raises far more often than they should, I think the amount of time that this particular player pays off a river raise with 99-JJ is much much less frequently than he pays off a flop raise and/or turn bet. You're also considering that he bet the flop, turn, and river, which in and of itself, when he doesn't have a payoff hand, isn't nearly as common as it going something like bet, check-fold, or occasionally bet-bet-checkfold.
In the aggregate of all of these types of situations against this sort of player, I think a flop raise is best. I think it's a close decision but I really think too many people on these boards forgo flop value raises in favor of getting tricky and carry that habit over to higher limits where it's incredibly transparent and loses you lots of bets in the longrun.
Rob
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