Re: Soul Searching
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Does anyone else 3bet the turn. You have top pair and an OESFD.
Thats:
9 outs to a flush
8 outs to a straight
2 outs to trips
3 outs to an iffy 2 pair (1 actual out)
Plus if you 3 bet the UTG+1 might lay down whatever random crap he holds.
Thought/Comments/Laughing/Ridicule
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If you're 3-betting the turn it's because you want UTG+1 to call. The problem with your outs analysis is that you're mostly relying on your flush outs -- trip outs aren't good against a straight or 2pr, 2pr outs are only good against a worse 2pr...
So if you weight his range of hands for this turn raise and say it's something like:
KQ 15%
JT 30%
99/44 15%
87 20%
Q8 20%
In that event, you'd have about 30% equity and would still be losing bets on a 3-bet, especially if UTG+1 folded. In addition, you'd miss out on a profitable river checkraise when you hit your flush if MP has two pair, and you'd get capped by a better hand pretty frequently. You're putting yourself in a nasty spot for RIO by 3-betting the turn here, even though your hand looks pretty, especially when you're inclined to bet a lot of your "outs" on the river when you hit them, even if they aren't good.
Rob
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