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Given the reads and the way in which the hand played out, I'd have a difficult time not raising here. I think it's fairly likely we're ahead here, and we shouldn't allow the flush possibility to deter us from value raising.

You only need to be good around 33% of the time to justify raising. I think you definitely satisfy this requirement.

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I like raising, but this is not true. A player can fold when we raise and we'll often get 3-betted by a flush, but not a worse hand.

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Yeah, as TOP suggests you should allow 5% or so overlay for this possibility. I kinda thought that was implied when I said "around 33%", but in hindsight it was ambiguous.

Other than that, I think the estimate is fine. We're risking 1BB to potentially win 2. While raising obviously cost 2BBs, I consider 1BB to be a sunk cost because we're committing a single BB when we decide to overcall. Therefore, that bet is committed to the pot regardless.

As you've mentioned, you may also consider the situation to be laying odds of 2-to-2, because you'll likely only gain 2BBs when ahead, and pay 2BBs (the initial raise + calling the 3-bet) when behind and face a 3-bet