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my feeling from your posts is you dont give too much credit to factors such as these.

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You underestimate how often the line accounts for the factors you mention.

Also, I was responding to this which you wrote:

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Your telling me in your handicapping you dont take into consideration a team playing for something more than the regular season? You dont take into account a team that has had plenty of chances to win games but find ways to lose in the end during the season?

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I don't have trends that determine what you're looking for but goldsheet.com may be a good place to start.