Re: AQ vs tag, river bluff?
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"The only point of this bet would be to fold exactly AK"
What about getting AT or KQ to call?
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It's very unlikely you're getting a call from K high considering you three-bet pre-flop. AT may very rarely call, but that's only one hand, and, again, not enough of a consideration to make betting correct.
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I don't think you're considering everything here. First off, villian played his hand poorly no what he has. It's not a terrible line only if he has exactly ATo. A pp should bet so he probably doesn't have that. AK would cap so he probably doesn't have that. Honestly, AT and KQ make the most sense. AK makes more sense than a pair. Statisically, villian has hero beat here 42/66 times, all else being equal. However, I, personally, think that the 24 possible combos of AT & KQ are more likely than the 42 combos of AK and a pair. So after further study,
I think a value bet is extremely thin if not -ev.
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