[Lori]

[ QUOTE ]
I expect this good buffalo offense to continue this trend, and win this game by 10 points.


[/ QUOTE ]

Please note I don't know which is the best of the two bets in that game, and I know nothing at all about the game in question. Literally nothing. However from your own opinion I think you're better off taking the -5 and living a little dangerously.

In the absence of any hard data (hopefully someone will help you out with some, if anyone has a database) I would guess from instinct that the -240 is a bad bet.

-240 has to win 71% of the time to be profitable

while 15/17 has to win 53% of the time.

I believe that means you should only take the -240 if you think it will be exactly 1,2,3 or 4 (and allow for 5 too, although it counts half) 18% of the time.

This may be wrong, I'm trying to get it done quickly in case it's nearly the start time and there can be traps in this kind of logic if done in a hurry.

Lori