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Old 11-30-2005, 05:49 PM
ansky451 ansky451 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 24
Default Re: 1st hand Empire $100, TPTK

Lets assume for a second this is a thinking opponent.

He puts you on 1) AK, or 2) JJ (or tens or a similar hand)

This bet then, makes very little sense. If he had a hand better than those hands, he probably doesn't think you call a pot bet, which leads me to beleive he is bluffing. He would be more likely to try to get value out of JJ by betting 1/2-2/3 pot I think. One possible hand that he would overbet I think, is some backdoor flush- since it is so disguised. He expects to get paid off with it because its nearly impossible to put him on it. Therefore, I think a call is best here, since he probably is bluffing anyway.

Suppose he is a donk- (much more likely)

He is a donk but he still remembers the action. This means if he has a piece, I don't think he is folding anything. You checked the turn, and he will probably therefore lose any respect for your hand- and call with anything reasonable. If he is bluffing and you raise, then it doesn't matter. If he has a marginal hand like JQ, he is calling. However despite all this, I have sort of decided mid paragraph, that a call is best. I can see this being a set, a lot of the time. The large river is usually a hand that is killing you (set, flush), or a bluff. Either way, we are better off just calling. I just don't see him making such a big bet with a weaker queen.
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