Re: A8s turn bluff
This is an attempt to eliminate the field and leave you heads up versus a weaker hand on the button. Because of the gutshots I don't see you eliminating any stronger button hand except possibly A9/A8. AQ/AT will call you down with a mixture of outs and distrust. Low pockets would have bet the flop.
I don't agree with the argument that you wouldn't play a king this way. It makes reasonable sense to check the turn in expectation that someone will make a play for this pot. At least it does against the right people.
Which brings up the problem of having three villains and only one read. It's really important to understand what the people behind us are doing. Are they broke because they checked? Does that mean they will fold now? Will 55 or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] be giving up?
I think this play has a fair chance. My instinct is that Villain is going directly to jail when we see his hand because he is a 30/20 type on the button versus a single limper. Q8 comes to mind. He checked because he has no hand, no outs, and no bluff equity on this flop against three players.
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