Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
Your intuition is correct. I think my math was faulty.
The number of deals where your opponent will recieve exactly one heart isn't 9 * 45, since 8 of the remaining 45 are also hearts. It's 9 * 37. So the number of correct probability is actually...
p = (9 * 37) + (9 * 8) / C(46,2)
= (333 + 72) / 1035
= 0.39
or just under 40% of the time.
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