Re: QQ Turns a set on a 4-flush board - overplayed?
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Speaking from a strictly mathematicaly point of view, heads-up on a four-flush board, the odds of villain actually having a flush are about 1 in 5.
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I believe this is way off.
With 6 cards already dealt, the total number of deals your opponent can get are C(46,2) = 1035. The number of deals in which he recieves exactly 1 heart are: 9 * 45 = 405, and the deals in which he recieves exactly 2 hearts are 9 * 8 = 72. So the probability that your opponent has at least 1 heart is:
p = (9 * 45) + (9 * 8) / C(46,2)
= (405 + 72) / 1035
= 0.46
...so about half the time your opponent has a flush here.
I think...
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