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Old 11-30-2005, 03:13 AM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 95
Default Re: Textbook wait for turn in huge pot?

It's close. When you raise the pot, there is a chance that it gets 3-bet and you can cap. (It's less likely you'll get 3-bet on the turn.) It's also possible that the villain will bet the flop, but check the turn after getting so many callers. (Given that he folded to your flop raise, that looks like quite possible in this particular hand.)

Also, you're generally not going to get gutshots to fold on the turn. The best you can do is to make their calls on the turn unprofitable for them.

So the question is really whether you are getting more value by raising the flop or waiting to raise the turn. If everything works out as you'd like, you'll get a little more value out of waiting for the turn. But anytime you miss a chance to cap the flop (even if MP3 has AK too) or you don't get to raise the turn, you lose quite a bit of value.

I honestly don't think these kind of decisions make or break small stakes players, but I would tend to just raise the flop here.

PS - Many bad players who would actually ditch their gutshots at any point before the river will fold when you raise the flop. They learned a general rule ("don't draw to inside straights") and you profit off of their mistake in this particular hand.
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