[jedinite]

For what its worth, UNC has what's generally regarded as the top recruiting class this year. They are going to upset a lot of people this year, but they're not going to be consistent enough to get it done long-term.

I think, per Caldarooni's post, that the mechanics underlying this trend likely do not apply here: UNC is not an under-exposed team and are going to have plenty of money floating on their side as a nationally-followed team, not to mention the last-years-champs factor.

For what its worth, I'd stay away from this game entirely, but if you were going to make a play I'd take UNC at home. They are exceedingly talented and very tough at home.

Bodog has this at a pick'em (-110).