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Old 11-29-2005, 05:29 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: New York
Posts: 505
Default Re: Chance of winning

You can only do this quickly in simple cases. For example, if you hold A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and the flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you're likely to win if a heart shows up, win or tie if a T shows up, possibly win if an A shows up, and probably lose for most of the other turn and river card combinations.

In the example you gave, there are too many unknowns. Someone could have a straight or straight draw; someone could have a pair, two pair or a set; someone could have a pocke pair; someone could have A or K or both. You didn't give suits, but flushes are another thing you have to analyze. For each of combination of cards for the six other players, you have to figure what could happen on the turn and river.

This is staightforward to analyze by computer, although it can take a long time to run. For practical poker, you analyze the important situations, like top pair, top kicker against someone who called your preflop raise from the big blind. You do this beforehand, either by yourself or relying on someone's book. You don't worry about what to do with QJ when you miss the flop; and you don't worry about random other hands.
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