Re: Questionable river payoff
4.5 to 1 on the river, we're at best splitting.
To see how often we need our call of the raise to be correct, take this inequality where P is the probability we split.
P*(+2.25BB) + (1-P)*(-1BB) > 0
2.25P + P - 1 > 0
3.25P > 1
P > 0.3077
I don't think we're splitting here >30% of the time. I fold. A bluff-raise by villain is out of the question, so I haven't included that.
|