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Old 11-29-2005, 04:02 PM
Harv72b Harv72b is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Baltimore, MD
Posts: 1,347
Default Re: When is enough enough?

Didn't read the other replies, so I'm probably going to be rehashing a lot of what was already said.

For starters, big downswings happen. I went through about a 2 month long downswing in the beginning of this past summer that crushed my confidence and had me asking many of the same questions you are. In the end, I eventually recognized and corrected my biggest problem: loose, overaggressive play on 6max tables. Now, if anything I think that I'm a little too passive postflop, but the WR is back where I want it anyway.

There are several things that jump out at me in the stats you posted, though.

As you said, your VPIP is too low. On the 5/10 tables (a considerably more aggressive game than 2/4), I play about an 18% VPIP; I recognize that most players would be more comfortable with around 16% there, but I have a tendency to push some small edges. In the typical 2/4 game, I would think that 18% would be the lower end of where you'd like to be, unless you're playing 4 or more tables (then, probably still in the 16-18 range). Probably a good bit of why your VPIP is too low relates to your blind stealing/defending.

VPIP from SB is also a bit low for a 1:2 blind structure game.

And yes, you need to be stealing the blinds more often, and especially defending your blinds more often. Going from your numbers, you are basically only defending your blinds with the same hands that you play from outside the blinds, and you're not adjusting your defending range based on whether you're in the SB or BB. I've started some pretty lengthy debates on here in the past with my stance that blind stealing isn't really of critical importance until you reach the 3/6 level, but you have to at least recognize that your opponents are trying to steal on 2/4. Defend that BB more often, especially. And it would also behoove you to increase your own stealing frequency into the low 30's, as you said.

You need to be raising much more often preflop. This includes making more steal raises, raising behind a limper from LP with borderline hands (especially if that limper is loose and/or predictable), raising strong suited broadway from the blinds, etc. At some point, you want your PFR percentage to hit double digits. Maybe that's a bit much for a relatively passive game like 2/4, but I don't think so. You certainly want to get it up there before moving up any further.

Now, the most critical point--your postflop play. Your numbers scream "weak/tight". Your WtSD% is way low--this should be in the low to mid 30's. Your W$SD is in the upper portion of the "good" range, which does show a bit of bad luck during this stretch, but not enough to single-handedly account for your losses. You simply must stay in more often with borderline draws, or in HU situations with borderline made hands. You are likely folding winning hands fairly often, which is directly responsible for your paltry W$WSF number (and, therefore, a good amount of your losses).

This is also demonstrated in your postflop aggression numbers. I think that your flop & turn aggression are each a little too high, which is probably a result of folding too often rather than overplaying your made hands. Your river aggression is maybe a hair low, especially considering how rarely you appear to be getting to the river, but is not far off of where it should be.

In a nutshell, my advice to you is that you raise more often preflop, defend your blinds more often, and don't fold so easily postflop. It may seem like I'm knocking pretty much every facet of your game, but honestly--these problems are not at all unusual in a relatively new player. Moreover, some of these deficincies could be a direct result of your downswing, especially since you were posting a healthy WR before the last 23k hands. Most people think of tilt as getting too loose and foolishly spewing off your chips, but it's just as easy (and probably more common, especially over longer periods) to tilt in the opposite direction and start folding/playing too passively while expecting to lose.
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