[Harv72b]

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And why are you calling a threebet getting like 12-1 to draw to a 20-1 shot? You're not getting the kind of insane implied odds you would need for that. In fact a lot of the time you hit your set on the turn you will still lose to KK or QQ. Spew spew spew.

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Because an aggressive opponent will 3-bet this flop without a K or Q...even without a pair. This is a blind battle, and things often get crazy. He might well decide that AJ (especially with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) is good enough to 3-bet your expected flop raise, and then check to you on the turn when you still call (representing at least 2nd pair). Of course, it's also possible that he'll suspect you of being on a draw and 3-bet the flop, bet the turn with A high thinking it's good. Against a thinking opponent, it becomes even more likely that he'll make a move like this if we raise/fold the flop fairly often in these situations, so calling the 3-bet is also about the metagame.

I also think you're greatly overstating the number of times you make your set on the turn but still lose to KK or QQ, especially given the number of players who will slowplay a flopped set in this scenario (i.e., call your flop raise with the intention of check/raising the turn). This also makes a line of raise the flop/check through the turn/call a river bet reasonable, but with several draws present on this flop I prefer to bet the turn when it's checked to me.