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Old 11-29-2005, 02:44 PM
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Default Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care

This early in the tourney, you could have a wide range of hands that you would call a moderate raise with preflop: any pp (22 thru 99), and some suited connectors (T9, JT, QJ, KQ and maybe even 45, 56). Any monster hands would reraise (AA/KK/QQ/AKs). I'm not sure how you would play TT, JJ or AQ - I could make an argument for both smooth calling and raising. If UTG was decent, he has a narrower range for raising OOP, perhaps AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK/AQ suited or not. If he's a donk, then perhaps he's raising with air.

Your half pot bet on the flop could be a probe bet. It was checked to you so you may be sensing weakness. With only the button to act after you, the bet would clear out some of the field.

Your range now could include KQ, QJ, 55, 33, and maybe some medium pp's if your read is that no one has a Q or flush. UTG's check could mean a monster wanting to be paid (Ax[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x offsuit that's looking to draw. He did not make a continuation bet which may or may not mean anything.

On the turn with only one opponent that checks to you, you make a 3/4 pot bet, hoping to take it down now.

Your range still is KQ, QJ, 55, 33, and medium pp's. UTG's checkcall could feels more like a draw A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] x offsuit. If he had the monster, there's no reason to conceal it since your now heads up. I think he would have checkraised if he had the flush or a set.

The river fills up anyone that had a set. UTG checks to you which means he's hoping you'll check it down to. If he had a real hand, he would value bet it.

Since you pushed, I don't think you filled up. If you did, you might have gone for a smaller value bet (unless UTG was a total donk that felt pot committed.) Your range is now KQ, QJ, and medium pp's with a semibluff in position.

UTG needs to have the flush (doubtful from turn and river play) or at least top pair to call.

Final analysis on hand ranges:

UTG - Folds all hands except flush or top pair.

MLG - AQ, KQ, QJ, possibly 55, 33 (doubtful), and perhaps 99-JJ.

John
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