[tiltaholic]

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3.I like the turn raise if you can fold to a 3-bet. Getting him to fold AK is very nice for you here. However, with the gutshot + 2 pair/trips draw, you can't fold to the 3-bet because now you've bloated the pot. Call turn and call river.

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So in a smaller pot or with less outs (maybe sans gutshot) I can raise/fold to a 3-bet here?

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i think the two primary reasons for not raising the turn are:
-the aggressiveness of the villian.
-the likelyhood we are behind.

if we put villian on a tight range of "3-bets from the SB" we are only currently ahead of 99, AQ, and AK, while behind to TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, and AJ. at first glance that looks like ahead of 44 combinations and behind 60.

so that right there argues against a turn raise.

but we also know him to be aggressive. which means he is very likley to 3-bet us, independant of the pot size. a turn raise would be optimal if we thought villian would only call, even with a better hand (and then check the river or would call on the turn with missed overcards but won't put a bet in on the river).

since he's aggressive, we get 2 bets in anyway by calling the turn and calling the river.