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I always assumed the optimal strategy with Japan was to ignore/delay the Pacific naval battle with the US, and instead concentrate on India/Asia, and draw Russia's attention from the Western front, enabling the Germans to take Caucus and the like. If Russia falls, the Allies are done.

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I think Japan needs to take out the US navy pronto by attacking Hawaii. The US has the $$ to build transports/infantry, so I would knock any ships that might later protect those troops in crossing the Pacific.

India is a bit dangerous to attack but not out of the question. I prefer China, and sometimes, depending on my opponent, an attack of Africa to help Germany.

Japan is a tough to one play. Maybe the toughest.