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Old 11-29-2005, 11:33 AM
jkkkk jkkkk is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Making moves in weak-tight land.
Posts: 637
Default Re: 2/4 KQs top pair+flush draw

Whats your play when he pushes a non-diamond A, J, or T river..

What are villains likely to do on a diamond river when you bet?

Raising villain folds, calling villain calls with worse pushes with more unless you push.

lets assume the calling villains flush range is neutral EV on the river. your not getting any $ with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river, you are perhaps getting the rest of raising villains $ on a blank river, ok.

This question all comes down to what % of the time they call on the turn when you push, a 65/38 must be calling off his stack a good amount and the 35/19 depends on how sneaky he thinks your being, hows your image?

The river blanks more times than a non [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A,J or T fall and we can't even be 100% sure how bad these cards are for you, I'm not even going to try and guess what % of the time you have to be called on the turn by weaker hands to make the push a superior play.

Its a hard question to answer, very situation dependent, we want them to make a mistake and defend our hand, whether the best way is re-evaluating on a river, I'm not sure..

Interesting hand.
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