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Old 11-29-2005, 10:00 AM
4_2_it 4_2_it is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2005
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Default Re: NL 100, fold the premium draw on the flop?

If UTG is a true TAG then this is a push or fold situation because you aren't getting paid if your flush hits. You are basically getting 2-1 on your money and based on the below analysis I think you can push here as long as villain's range is wider than a set.

You are a favorite against A8 or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]:

pokenum -h ah th - as 8c -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 519 52.42 436 44.04 35 3.54 0.542
As 8c 436 44.04 519 52.42 35 3.54 0.458

pokenum -h ah th - 9d 8d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 519 52.42 471 47.58 0 0.00 0.524
9d 8d 471 47.58 519 52.42 0 0.00 0.476

A slight dog against A9:

pokenum -h ah th - as 9d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 465 46.97 520 52.53 5 0.51 0.472
As 9d 520 52.53 465 46.97 5 0.51 0.528

And a 3-1 dog against a set of 9's:

pokenum -h ah th - 9s 9d -- 8h ad 9h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ad 9h 8h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Th 322 32.53 668 67.47 0 0.00 0.325
9s 9d 668 67.47 322 32.53 0 0.00 0.675
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