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Old 11-29-2005, 05:09 AM
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Default Re: Do I cap this suited ace preflop?

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Guys, don't pay so much attention to the preflop raise. The turn is where the real mistake is.

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Exactly. Why are you not taking a free card on this turn? Are you trying to buy the pot right there versus three other players? Given that board, there are a number of straight and flush possibilities, most of which aren't folding. Also, no one with a 5 is folding, and it's unlikely that a 9 folds either.

There has been a lot of discussion about the preflop raise, but I'm really curious about OP's reasoning behind betting the turn rather than checking.

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OK, how about this (not that it justifies the bet, but just for arguments sake)...

To buy two (or more) more outs. Suppose AJ/AT of clubs stayed in on the flop with two over cards and a backdoor draw. Or what about T9 or 98? Couldn't a turn bet buy two or more outs? Is that justified in a 11+ BB pot if a better hand folds? Just a thought.

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1) Suppose AX (where X outkicks your 8) stayed in on the flop with two overcards. He's still in the hand when the turn is checked to you. Assuming the 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is no good, you probably have 8 outs at this point. You have 7 known cards (your two hole cards, the four on the board, and your opponent's assumed A) and 45 unknowns. Out of those 45 unknowns there are probably 8 hearts that improve your hand without giving someone a boat. So your equity is 8/45=17.78%, and 17.78% x 11.25 BB = 2 BB.

Now if your Ax opponent folds, you have two more outs. 10/45=22.22%, and 22.22% x 11.25 BB = 2.50 BB. So you're paying 1 BB to gain 0.5 BB in equity.

I believe you would have to buy 4 more outs in this situation to increase your equity by the same amount of big bets as your turn bet. If the pot was larger, then it might be different.

2) Suppose one of your opponents has T9 or 98. I don't expect someone with top pair to fold on the turn with a large pot. It's possible but extremely unlikely for most 1/2 players to make that type of laydown in a hand where only one opponent has shown any aggression.

I think the concept of buying outs with a big pot is more applicable on the flop than the turn because you only have one more card to come. Buying two more outs on the flop is much more valuable than buying two more outs on the turn. Of course all of this is highly dependent upon the size of the pot, your opponents, and the texture of the board. However, I think trying to buy outs is -EV in this particular hand.

I hope some of that makes sense.
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