Re: AKs, give me a line
i figured rather then throwing out random speculation about call or push, maybe i could quantify it in numbers to show what i'm saying. (gabe)
of course when action is back on me, you didn't really say cold callers are the type to follow suit. In my head, and htis could DEFINATELY change things, I'm expecting the pot to be HU.
A call puts 850 out there and effecive ~1700 stacks. My basic argument is if he is in fact squeezing, and he cbets, you win that + whats in the pot when he has nothing, yet still lose the max when he does have KK or AA. (Speculating that QQ or JJ, other "real" hands, may get away from an ace or king flop) Problem is you wont flop anything more often then when you do, giving his "bluff / steal equity" full power in this spot.
A push pf? Well, when action is back to you, a "call" puts 850 in the pot. (As said) He would be laid a price of 1720:4250, or he needs 40% equity to call. So any random 2 cards for a squeeze would go away, as they arent given a good enough price at all to gamble.
A small or mid pair may as well fold, which is what you'd like to have happen; if he'd muck QQ even at this point, which is very possible, you're scoring a HUGE EV victory.
So, even if you throw in being called by AA, KK, QQ, (even though QQ combinations are more likely then AA or KK, we can counteract this by saying he may fold QQ, whereas he never folds AA and probably wont ever fold KK) your equity is still ~33% vs that range. Meaning when called, you rate to get back "1402". Interestingly, the break even point is he needs to fold around ~50% of the time. (To show profit)
I dont even know what the point of this is, because I'm not even sold either of these is pos EV! (And why I probably would just fold pf) But I think, continuing this thinking, that you fold too often postflop (incorrectly) or play on when you run into a big hand anyway (incorrectly) to often to validate calling and seeing a flop.
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