[deception5]

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I did a quick pokerstove simulation with somewhat generous hands for the opponents 6h7h for BB, 3s5s for UTG, Ad9d for CO.

9,885,332 games 12.063 secs 819,475 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 33.7500 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 20.3668 % [ 00.20 00.00 ] { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 06.7174 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 39.1658 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { JsJh }


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Here you have 39% equity while putting in 25% of the money if you raise the flop and get everyone to call. I think this is a decent edge, and it could be a lot higher when instead of flush draws and straight draws your opponents have 5 outers with bottom/middle pair. I'm leaning towards raising this flop. What do you guys think?

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i think this is a good start to a great analysis

if we wait until the turn we pass on the oppurtunity to buy 39% of four bets for the price of one bet so with this range we lose .56 sbs on the flop.

what you haven't analyzed is how much we gain if the turn bricks and we raise at that point.

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Here are the turn numbers for the same set of hands:

5,691,031 games 10.084 secs 564,362 games/sec

Board: 9h 2h 4s 4c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.5028 % 17.50% 00.00% { 7h6h }
Hand 2: 12.4955 % 12.50% 00.00% { 5s3s }
Hand 3: 04.9879 % 04.99% 00.00% { Ad9d }
Hand 4: 65.0138 % 65.01% 00.00% { JhJs }