Re: Semi Results
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The turn bet/check can go either way. Checking is not terrible like everyone says. There are a few underlying factors:
1. I felt the button would bet the turn ~50% of the time (some portion of that because he hit a queen and some portion to take a stab at it). I know that if button bets the turn, SB will almost always call. Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.
2. There's very little chance that a free card will hurt me on a whiff. The pot is small, so I don't mind calling only one bet or folding on the river to significant action if a flush card hits.
3. By not defining my hand on the turn, it encourages them to take river shots. I'm aware that my hand doesn't look like trips by the river and will adjust accordingly.
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Hey House,
I like your analysis. I have a few comments:
1. Where did you get this 50% number from? That's a very high %age for him to have a queen or "take a stab." Realistically I think this # is gonig to be much lower.
What's very important here is the 2nd part of this statement:
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Trapping both of them for a double bet makes for a HUGE reward to my risk.
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I think you've really overestimated A) the amount of time button bets B) the amount of time either of them has a hand that can call a c/r. A pot-protected c/r in this tiny pot screams trips. Betting helps disguise your hand and may get you raised by a Q now or by a hand that improves on the river.
2. Good pont. Small pots like this you want to win more bets, not win the pot.
3. I'm not sure how much this is a factor. you only fail to define your hand when it checks through - your hand is painfully obvious when you c/r. When you bet, your hand is still undefined(as to its true strength) whether you get raised or called.
Surf
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