Great discussion so far
Well, I was sweating Steve through the final 100 or so players in this tournament. I really thought WilliamHill was on a move this hand the way the hand flowed. My instict really said move, basically based on everything Colson said. The pot control is the main thing. Also that river push screamed to me that he put Steve on a pair smaller than a T and praying that he folds it. Thinking more and more about it I really think its ridiculously close. The turn is probably misplayed for sure, but when we get to the river...to "Gracz it" or not to Gracz it is a very tough decision.
Basically the guy either had 99 a hand with a 3 or a bluff. Its hard to get 3 of a kind in this game, so I am leaning towards call.
One more thing to think about...when this turn gets raised, the guys range is really HUGE (like any 2 that he has gotten to the turn with) so a push seems good to me on the turn, only problem is u are gonna be drawing mighty thin if called so its more of a bluff than a semi-bluff.
The range narrows when the river is pushed I guess, but by how much? A good player is gonna realize that Steve's most likely hand here is a weakish pair and its not easy to call this river push with a weakish pair, so if the guy is reading the hand correctly a push with any 2 seems about right. Its almost like the guys turn raise was small enough to push the river and induce a fold if he sensed weakness, well we showed weakness so he pushed...either that or he had quads
|