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Old 11-28-2005, 09:46 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: First session of 40/80 at commerce

Hobbs,

The turn donk could be a ton of things. It could be a legit hand that improved. It could be a marginal hand avoiding a free card. It could be a monster that got afraid of the three-straight board. It could be a draw. Who knows. I think you are certainly ahead often enough to raise, though, particularly with your straight redraws increasing your equity. I think the fear of having to pay two much with a draw here is not that big, because, though sometimes the donk is a monster, a huge hand often will check-raise here, and so I think your risk of getting three-bet on this turn is really not that high.

I think you should value bet the river. Once your turn raise gets called and you get checked to on the river, I think you are probably ahead often enough to bet. Basically, the turn only helped flush draws, but they were around on the flop anyway, and might have gotten aggressive there. You can fold to a check-raise.
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