[W. Deranged]

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I don't like the flop/turn line against this type of opponent. An opponent like this is very rarely going to fold to that kind of aggression (check his WTSD... I imagine it's quite high). I think you should just check-call both streets.

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You dont think he ever folds AKo on the turn if he's unimproved? You are right that his WTSD is high at 45%.

Against two non-heart overcards, I am 62% to win. Do you think he has an overpair often enough to make the check-raise -EV?

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You make an interesting point, and I guess I can see the argument in wanting to check-raise for value here. The main reason I don't like it is getting raised on the turn sucks...

You note that you are 62% against a non-pair overcard hand. There are times villain will have a pair though, and so this number will dip into the 50s and so any equity edge you have on the flop is very slim at best.

So, basically, the upside to your line really lies primarily in getting villain to make an incorrect fold on the turn. Any slight value edge you have on the flop is mitigated by the expensive nature of your line the times you are behind (you lose a lot more by taking this line when behind than you gain when ahead). So, in situations were you do not have a good chance of getting villain to make an incorrect fold on the turn, your line is probably only increasing variance while really not increasing expectation.

Personally, I don't think a 45% WTSD type is ever folding a big A unimproved on this turn. In fact, not folding that type of hand is precisely why their WTSD is so high. Since you're not getting a fold from that type of hand, I prefer simply playing this more straightforwardly.