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Old 11-28-2005, 01:09 PM
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Default Re: Variance - Advice Please!

I was in your spot about 2 months ago, felt like I was 'cursed' and unlucky and couldnt win a flip. Logically I knew it was all in my head but that didnt help.

So I made an excel sheet and started to keep track of my expected winning % when I went allin and saw a showdown. It takes some work but doing this has really helped me because I can corroborate what I'm feeling with actual numbers and this makes me feel alot better.

For example I can see if I'm winning more or less than I should be. For example right now in situations where I should win 75% of the time I'm winning only 60% of the time, but I know that will change and now every time I lose one of those instead of focusing on the loss I can focus on the coming heater I'm going to have as the math gets back to even. This has helped me do away with the feelings of being 'unlucky' as I can plainly see that the math does work out in the long run.

And I also get to celebrate when I see I'm on a heater - like a couple of weeks ago that I won 9 coinflips in a row - or right now that I'm running at %50 in situations where I should be winning only 25% of the time. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
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