[elindauer]

hi bicyclekick,

You've told us that he is passive postflop, but without telling us how often he gets to showdown, it's hard to tell if he'll call with ace high on the river. Without already knowing that information, I want to find out, so I bet. AK / AQ could easily get to the river just like this, and if he calls with them, it changes a lot of my strategy for handling this guy in future hands.

To me, this knowledge is much more important than any subtle EV difference between check/fold and bet/fold lines. check/call is right out.

my 2 cents.
eric


edit: the more I think about it, the more convinced I become that for your play to make any sense, you have to bet the river and he has to be willing to call with ace high. If not, checking the turn will almost always be the best play.

Checking the turn avoids getting 2 BBs in while drawing and lets you see whether or not he has you beat then. The free card is meaningless, since you will get exactly 1 BB in anyways and cannot prevent him from drawing out. In fact, the check-check turn may save you some money if the river comes off bad.

Unless he is so weak-tight that he won't bet the turn and will fold the river unimproved, donking the turn only makes sense if you are going to bet a non-overcard river too. Betting to make ace high fold on the turn has very little value, as two overcards will not fold, and Ax is likely too weak a hand for him to have raised preflop.