Re: QJs openlimps
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If you bet the turn, you have to bet the river.
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While I would bet the river in this hand (and most hands, FWIW), this statement isn't true in general.
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You're not clearing up any outs, you're not folding a better hand and you've got zero fold equity on another draw. The only reason to bet the turn is for value.
Fine. You bet and are called.
So what's changed on the river?
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What's changed is that Villain may no longer pay off with a drawing hand on the river if we bet, and Villain will be less likely to check because checking doesn't get him a free card on the river. The big difference on the turn in general is that turn aggression forces drawing hands to pay the worst of each bet going in, where river bets don't afford the aggressor that luxury.
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On the turn, there is ZERO overcards that can come to your pair. If you are ahead, your opponent is drawing to two or 3outs (ignoring the BDFD).
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Villain could have thought he had 8 outs on the turn with his own J that will bluff the river as a last ditch attempt. Villain can actually have between 4 and 7 outs here pretty often too.
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