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Old 11-27-2005, 06:15 PM
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Default Re: ($60) Call this ITM resteal?

This is break-even somewhere around top 25% for villain (I'm fudging some numbers with SNGPT to adjust for the way the action went, but that's pretty close). I'd be hard pressed to put villain on that wide a range here. The average range in SNGPT (44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+) makes it about -2%, and I don't know if that's really tight enough (I'd probably want a bigger pair than 44 and wouldn't go with Kx in his shoes, though I might call a raise with more hands than that). The push feels like a medium pair or marginal to big ace that doesn't want to be pushed off post-flop, to me.

FWIW, SNGPT indicates calling is -EV when villain has a PP<88 (well, except for 22 which is break-even), presumably because you're already well positioned for 1st, and the extra chips you get when you win an all-in showdown here aren't changing things nearly as much as the chips you stand to lose.
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