[jedinite]

I've got a five-team teaser, 2.5 units wagered to win 10 units. I strongly expect this teaser to be live entering the late game, based on the early action.

I'll be riding 2.5 units to win 20 units on Arizona +9.5
I know this is a great position to be in, as I calculate the EV of AZ +9.5 to be extremely significant (as they're already a single-unit play in my picks at +3.5).

Question is, is it worth trying to middle with Jacksonville -3.5 (-105) as a hedge, something like 3 units on Jacks -3.5 where I could win both bets if Jacks wins by a TD? What if Jacksonville moves to -3 (-110) or even moving it to -3 (-120 or -115).

I'm most inclined to just let it ride, but my thoughts are if I can get Jacksonville -3 -110 it might be worth a middling hedge.

Jacksonville wins by exactly 3 I'd win my one unit bet on AZ +3.5, push on Jacks -3 and win the tease for a net of +13 units

If Jacks wins by 4-9 I'd lose 1.1 unit on AZ +3.5, win 3 units on Jacks -3 and win 10 units on the tease for a net of +11.9 units

If Jacks wins by less than three or Arizona wins outright, I win +1 unit on AZ +3.5, win the tease for +10 units, and lose 3.15 units on the hedge/middle for a net of +7.85 units.

If Jacks wins by more than 10, I lose the tease for -2.5 units, lose the one unit on AZ for -1.1 unit, and win the hedge for +3 units for a total of -.6 unit.

Or I could hedge four units to guarantee a small profit, etc...

Thanks in advance for the feedback...