Converting ML to points
Hmm -
Are you saying that there is a constant relationship between an "X" point fav. and that same team on the ML ?
If you are I strongly disagree.
While there are no Denver Nuggets circa-early 1980s or Detroit Pistons of the later 80s around today there are strong and weak defenses, strong and weak offenses, those that excel on both and those that are weak at both.
To suggest that a 5 point favorite will always be (or should I say SHOULD always be) a particular figure on the ML is wrong - very wrong.
Granted, there will never be a huge difference; you'll never see a -5,-150 nor will you ever see a -5, -300 but sportsbetting is about finding razor thin edges and pouncing.
This is especially true for basketball which is about matchups more than it is about absolute superiority.
Rock-paper-scissors is the motto of the NBA bettor.
The reason 'books charge 10 cents for ALL half points has nothing to do with all halves being equal. 10 cents for ANY 1/2 point is highway robbery so why do they care whether they are getting you to make an horrendous bet or a bet that is simply pretty bad.
While BB, unlike football, has no "hot numbers" there is still a non-linear relationship between MLs and point-spreads as well as no constant relationship involving two matchups where the fav in both just happens to be -"X".
Pinnacle's lines reflect this; they by charge more for some halves than others.
They also charge less than 10 cents for most halves but their "adjustments" are also bad bets. They're just not AS bad as the rest.
*
If I misunderstood you - i.e., if your conversion chart allows for this - my apologies.
|