View Single Post
  #3  
Old 11-26-2005, 09:07 PM
Double Down Double Down is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 0
Default Re: BJ odds question

This is the opposite of the traditional Martingale, where you double after losing. With betting progressions, they seem like they should win, but because cards have no memory, your results will prove otherwise.
With a negative betting progession, you will have many sessions where you win a little and a few sessions where you lose a lot. Inversely, with your system, you will lose a little most of the time and have a big win every now and then.

But the big wins will happen just infrequently enough so that you are down overall. To be exact, you will be down however much money you have wagered total times the house advantage.

Frankly, there's nothing wrong if you want to play a progression, but just don't fool yourself into thinking that it's a longterm winning strategy. The only other danger in betting a progression is that you might be betting more money than you normally would. I mean, in your example, you start with a 1 dollar bet and if you hit that winning streak then all of the sudden you're betting $128. Is this something you would normally do? Probably not, if your base bet is a buck.

So progressions, without people realizing, lose their money faster because they're wagering more than they normally would. But if you want, you could find a more conservative progression, such as betting 10, 15, and 25. Then you'll be wagering an average of about 17 or 18 bucks a hand which is what you might do anyway, and you'll also have the fun of upping your bet during a "hot streak."

Either way, it's your money and it's entertainment, so have the most fun (without it costing you the most buck).
Reply With Quote