Re: AJs in SB vs. unknown UTG raise
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most players at 1/2 6-max don't cap AQ preflop.
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This line of thought alludes to an important poker math concept that even many fine players don't understand.
Suppose 90% of players openraise and cap the best 3% of all their hands in this situation. Suppose 10% of players openraise and cap the best 15% of all their hands in this situation.
How likely is unknown Villain capper to have a top 3% hand? Hint: the answer is not 92%.
How likely is unknown Villain to belong to the LAG minority?
Principle: A completely unknown player who takes any very aggressive action is much more likely to be a LAG or maniac than you might expect.
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