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Villain is 43/7/1.4/10 but I've C-bet against him 5 times in the last 2 orbits, he's folded every one until now. I've only played 20 or so hands with him. Is he playing back since it looks like I missed overs?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed)
FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
Button ($99.50)
SB ($347.35)
BB ($137.85)
UTG ($126.10)
Hero ($113.10)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $5</font>, [color=#666666]
3 folds</font>, UTG calls $4.
Flop: ($11.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
UTG checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $10</font>, [color=#CC3333]UTG raises to $30</font>, Hero?
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Villain limp called your raise and then check-raised you on the flop. I'm gonna eliminate pp AA-JJ because he raises 7% preflop and would have raised those UTG. Since villains AF is fairly low, I think that this is either a set (555 or 222) or two spade over cards. Once in a great while, villain may whack you back with something like QJo, but most of the time you are in trouble in this spot.
By the way, against spade overs (villain's most likely holding IMO) you are 44% to win. Fold now.