[Xhad]

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You're wrong because if your outs are evenly distributed throughout the deck and your opponents hands, so are junk cards that will not improve your hand. therefore, if you do the math you will come up with the same odds of hitting your draw if all your opponents cards are in the muck or shuffled back in to the deck, just as long as you don't know what the cards are.

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Soko, that’s what I thought: It’s intuitive. However, can you find an error in the OP’s math? I couldn’t.

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Here is the error: OP assumes that your opponents are dealt an average number of cards in "your" suit. However, you will be more likely to flop a flush draw those times your opponents are dealt fewer cards in your suit than average.

If OP wants to fix his math he's going to either need to apply Bayes' Theorem, or deal the flop first then determine the average amount of cards that appear in his opponents' hands.