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Old 11-26-2005, 07:19 AM
jkkkk jkkkk is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Making moves in weak-tight land.
Posts: 637
Default Re: mutual exclusivity

p(A) is indeed .5 and p(B) is indeed .35

I can't get my head around the 0.05 answer, it just doesn't add up for me, I'm probably wrong but heres why I think its not 0.05:

In a perfect world probability AB = .5 * .35 = .175

if we take the chance of them both not happening in a perfect world it is .5 * .65 = .325

We are told the world isn't perfect and that neither of them happening is .2. It is for some reason less likely that they both don't happen.

So if the probability of them both not happening goes down then doesn't it follow logic that the chance that both of them happen goes up? I don't see why the probability of both of them happening goes from .175 to .05.

The additional .125 of mutual unexclusivity needs to be added somewhere, I don't see how it works against P(AB).
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