Re: How long can you run good?
The long run is long. I've done some simple simulations in Excel and they indicate that even after 50k hands a true break even player can have +1 BB/100 by chance alone.
Conversely, a true 2 BB/100 player can have 1 BB/100 after 50k hands because he is running bad. I wouldn't be surprised to see luck effects of similar magnitude even after 100k hands or more.
However, if you're 2 BB/100 over 40k hands at 2/4, you should consider moving up. It's a decent sample size even if it's not big enough to determine your true win rate accurately.
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