Thread: Raising Preflop
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Old 11-25-2005, 06:29 PM
Roadstar Roadstar is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 158
Default Re: Raising Preflop

Please try to come up with a better way of asking a question or starting a debate if thats your intention.

Here is an example:

You have AA UTG you raise.

I'm in the BB with 22

Lets assume I know you are holding AA so quantitatively (since you like it so much) I'm a 4-1 dog. If everyone folded to me, I should fold (ignoring implied odds for a second since I don't want to make assumptions about post flop playing skills at this point).

So here you want me to call so I make a mistake.

But lets assume everyone on the table cold calls your raise. With 19 SB in the pot, I'm getting 19-1 so it is correct for me to call now my EV is now +.

because mathematically 19-1 is greater than 4-1.

Now why did this happen? because you WANT 9 callers didn't you?

The reason is when one person cold calls 2SB, most of it goes to you in terms of equity. So if you're 80% favorite, 80% of the 2SB or 1.6SB "is expected to belong to you" (EV). BUT as more ppl call, other hands gain in value, so their mistake starts getting distributed to other ppl with legitimate hands that can outdraw you at the right price.

Your incremental EV from each cold caller decreases (and starts shifting to me with the 22).

In other words, your second derivative starts getting smaller (the rate of change on incremental EV). Conceivably, you're not only raising with just AA and they would be hands where additional callers help allocate equity away from you and to someone else - making the incremental equity negative or simply put you want to thin the field.

BTW what does the 2 *'s mean [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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