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Old 11-25-2005, 06:14 PM
legend42 legend42 is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 56
Default Re: NBA moneyline questions (and another)

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In fact, for a +3 -110 NFL dog the equivalent ML is +129; they are the exact same lines.

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While this is a good guideline for assessing value, I think it's wrong to say they are the exact same line. They might be historically equivalent, but each game has its own dynamics which might affect one line (ML & spread) more than the other.

For instance, the points are more valuable in a game with two low-scoring teams than two high-scoring teams. Also, certain teams have marked up-or-down tedencies, while others are relatively consistent in their week-to-week performance. If both teams were, say 8 point underdogs, it doesn't mean the money line should necessarily have the same odds as each other.
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