craig, fair enough!

my thought is that people just like to shy away from moneyline favorites as you can't make as much money. most people are into sports betting for the gambling aspect.

i understood that san antonio is -769 tonight moneyline even though i only posted chicago at +560.... i find the house profit on the moneyline is fixed (i.e. look at how much you'd lose by betting on both team in proper dollar proportions), so i usually only have to look at one side to get a feel for the value. although it is a slightly dangerous assumption.

i do think it's a good point on the value between moneyline vs. point spreads. especially at the higher point spread games.

do you find that the moneyline is always quite similar for the same point spread (5 point favorites for example)? and can the moneyline vary depending on the circumstances of the teams? i.e. a team could play great or terribly, very inconsistent.

regarding moneyline favorites. here is some simple analysis i did.

best five home teams last year (and i realize you don't know this until after the season

SAS 38-3
miami 35-6
detroit 32-9
denver 31-10 (high altitude, less oxygen)
sacramento 30-11

so most of those latter teams should be -300 against the average team.

worst road

atlanta 4-37
charlotte 4-37
milwaukee 7-34
NOH 7-34
utah 8-33

so those worst road teams should be +900 vs. average team. and others are +400 to +500

but as i said, you don't know who will be the best and worst home/road guys till the end.

craig, i appreciate your comments. sometimes i just don't put enough words (or work) into my posts. but i do know alot about how moneylines work. haven't played them that much though.

FWIW, i think NCAA football is awesome for moneyline. a 10 point spread is nothing in NCAA but in NFL it's huge.

so those worst teams should be