Re: NBA moneyline questions (and another)
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was wondering if anyone here has good experience with NBA moneylines.... and had seen any studies or anything.
tonight, chicago bulls at san antonio -11, the money line is +560, and teamrankings.com has winning chance at 13.5%. but SAS never seem to lose at home (although chicago is pretty good). i just don't think that moneyline is sufficient.
than atlanta at indiana -11.5.. moneyline = +700. i just see atlanta as having no chance. or they win 3 or 4 out of 41 if they played every road game in indy. so i'm thinking +1000 to +1500
i told a guy who just got into this to play moneyline on favorites and small underdogs, especially small home underdogs. any thoughts?
all responses greatly appreciated!
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The fair money line on the spurs would be -971 and for their opponnent +469.
The Atlanta line at +700 is actually a pretty nice price. Our line converter* shows it should be +567 and for their opponents -1433.
So, it looks like you would be getting a good price on the dog ML, but since I don't like variance that much I would just take the points.
What do you mean "play moneyline on favorites"? Do you mean lay the odds with no spread? Unless the price is right, you can't do that. Sometimes the spread will be better than the ML and vice versa. The books do not move them at the same time. So, if a lot of money gets bet on SA -11, that does not necessarily mean the ML will move and vice versa once again.
As far as betting small underdogs, that is a "decent" subset, but there are times to bet big underdogs on the spread. Betting dogs on the spread is good for one reason, because since they are trying to win, they are inherently trying to cover. Also, with big dogs, the chance of a back door cover is much greater. If you have +11 and the fav is winning by 15 with 1 minute left, you are usually in good shape to at least push. All the fav wants to do is win, not cover. I hope this helps a bit. Minimal sleep might have made my wording a bit confusing.
*My site is just about to launch in about 1.5 weeks and we have a line converter that will answer these types of questions. It is still in beta-testing though, but DougOzzzz has been doing a great job.
craig
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