was wondering if anyone here has good experience with NBA moneylines.... and had seen any studies or anything.

tonight, chicago bulls at san antonio -11, the money line is +560, and teamrankings.com has winning chance at 13.5%. but SAS never seem to lose at home (although chicago is pretty good). i just don't think that moneyline is sufficient.

than atlanta at indiana -11.5.. moneyline = +700. i just see atlanta as having no chance. or they win 3 or 4 out of 41 if they played every road game in indy. so i'm thinking +1000 to +1500

i told a guy who just got into this to play moneyline on favorites and small underdogs, especially small home underdogs. any thoughts?

all responses greatly appreciated!