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Old 11-24-2005, 04:05 PM
fluff fluff is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 743
Default Re: Do You Really Have 9 OutsTo A Flush Draw??

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If 20 cards are dealt, then on average 5 of each suit will be dealt. If you are suited then you can assume that on average 3 other cards of your suit were already dealt. So once you flop a flush draw you would only have 6 outs in reality on average.

Is it better to assume we have 6 outs to a flush instead of 9??

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Holy Ephipany Batman!

Let's extend your logic: After dealing 20 cards, the burn card, and the flop, there are only 28 cards left in the deck. Since the dealer only deals from the top of the deck, the cards in the bottom of the deck can never come out. Well, since there are only 4 more cards coming out (burn, turn, burn, river), and 2 of those are burn cards, that means 26 cards in the back of the deck won't help you. That means on average, 6.5 of the cards of your suit are in the back of the deck, where they are useless.

Substracting those out from the remaining 6 outs you had after the flop is dealt, 6 outs - 6.5 outs = -0.5 outs.

Clearly flush draws are hugely -EV. Fold please.
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