[MattiasL]

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I get 1:10 odds which means I only need to collect 1 additional BB on a jack. Seems nice.


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You need to collect more than 1 bet. 3 clean outs alone is 14-1, not 11-1. Add additional odds for a redraw against you.


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But if it goes for 2 bets with only BB and button playing the risk for a flush is not that bad (it would almost have to be AsKs or AsQs, and high PPs are more probable). MP calling changes things.

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When BB bets out I would think that I might get to see the turn for 1 SB (great odds) or 2 SB (since the passive BB will not threebet that often).

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BB is a passive that's just capped preflop and bet the flop into an UTG initial raiser and preflop 3 bettor. That's usually AA or KK. You have an aggressive behind you that 3 bet you(uncharacteristically, according to the OP) and will very likely raise this flop. I don't see this flop going for just 1 bet. Here's to wishful thinking. Figure a 2 bet flop. Also the factor that a player is almost all in which takes away some of your implied odds should you hit your hand.

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Agreed. But if the button and MP are not totally hopeless they will also know BB has a power hand. So getting 1 SB is far from impossible (if for example button has AK), and even if the chance is smallish it helps your odds. For example if the price is
- 30% 1 SB
- 50% 2 SB
- 20% 3-4 SB
I have odds even if I were to fold to a BB 3bet (which I am not sure if I would do even with MP calling - but a cap sucks in that situation).

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I think it's a close decision overall.


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I can agree with that.