[Neuge]

[ QUOTE ]
Intuitively it's likely he has Aces, but mathematically it's not.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]From a straight random statistical standpoint it's not mathematically likely. But even a donk can see it is more likely now based solely on the action. Once a good, thinking poker player analyzes the situation they can see it as probably more likely than that.

That's why we put people on hand ranges. It's not to prove we can know what another person is thinking, that's just a byproduct. It's to make our math more accurate. If we can be certain that he has AA there it makes the math absolute, fold. You can run pokerstove all day long, it won't ever say you're +EV there with kings because we know what he's holding.

Obviously tournamnet structure and payout make the math more complex as opposed to cash games, but it's still there and always will be.