[Big Limpin']

you down 50 bucks? guess what? if ONE single coinflip had gone your way, a 4th may have become a 1st. Then you are even steven.

you think over the course of 60 games, you could maybe have gotten lucky TWICE? Then you'd be up money. Over your sample, the results of a signle big hand will move your ROI by several points.
Of course, the arguement is that you could have lost one or two more hands, and thats true.

But, over small samples, your gut-feeling is more accurate than your spreadsheet at telling you if you are in a game you can beat.